Sunday, July 12, 2009

Sunday Night Chart Scan



Looking at some charts... Thesis for this week- I don't know whats going to happen.

Markets on the verge of a breakdown- but can't seem to actually breakdown in a significant way- I'm looking at exhaustion on both sides. Bears can't seem to break below the 875 level and have tried twice- each time with market turning higher and closing above 875, they don't seem to have any momentum either so absent some catalyst I think the market will move higher in the short term. As for the bulls they are hanging on via a thread and have saved the market twice in the last week- if there is another attempt at 875 very soon they may be exhausted and the 875 level could fall to the bears. Since I'm leaning long my target would be the 10-dma at 900 and then the 50 day at 910.

My candidates for trades this week are RIG & GS, I'm liking RIG long and GS short;

RIGHY RIG August 70 Call
GSTD GS August 120 Put

Been looking at the charts for some good long candidates and only finding shorts...
Western Digital short; unusual put volume in the August 22.50 puts 3,370 WDCTX .75-.85
I prefer the WDCTE August 25 put 1.60-1.65 1.55-1.65

Chipotle Mexican Grill short; CMGTO August 75 put 3.40-3.80 3.60-3.80

Some other thoughts for this July option expiration week:

Market has been down last 4 weeks heading in to OPEX, OPEX is a counter-trend week so look long- at least early in the week.

Market has been range bound for some time now, since May; play the range until it breaks.

S&P close below 875 on volume means look out below.

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